Good morning! I'm Meteorologist Mike Hernandez and I'm hoping by starting this blog we will have an opportunity to get to know each other better. My thinking is that if I know what's important to you all  weatherwise I can do a better job giving you the weather information you really need.  Plus I want to be able to talk about weather issues that we're all interested in or topics that affect our lives. So if you have a question about the forecast for the next few days or you want to talk about , for example El Nino, Global Warming, or the big snow storm, I'm hoping we can do this on this blog. 

So let's start by talking about Global Warming....What do you think? Is it real or is it part of a bigger pattern?  

Our weekend storm is still on track and this one looks to be very wet.  Clouds will increase today across the area with the slight chance of a shower.  By Friday the low will get picked up by the storm track and pushed toward the southwest.  Rain and high mountain snow will overspread the state Friday night and last through Saturday.  This system has the potential to drop over an inch of rain in some of the western valley sections of the state.  By Sunday afternoon we will clear out.

The big question with this system is at what elevation will the rain/snow line setup.  Right now it looks to me to be between 8,000' and 9,000'.  If this is the case most of our ski areas will pick up a very heavy wet snow that will be very good for setting a base for the ski season.  A couple factors could help us achieve a major mountain snowfall.  ; The first will be what time the storm heads in.  If it comes in late Friday night when temps are at their coolest this will help with the snow numbers.  In addition if we get a cold front from the northeast this will help the snow to pile up as well. 

There are still some details we are ironing out with this storm but it looks fairly certain at the very least we are headed for a rainy and cool weekend.  Bust potential is 20%.

Mark Ronchetti

A few weak weather disturbances will pass to our north.  This will bring an occasional flurries to the northern mountains over the next few days.  Temps will remain in the 50's for highs in most Valley sections of the state. 

We are watching another storm for Friday night into the weekend.  A couple things are very clear already.  This storm will not be as cold as the Thanksgiving storm.  So all valley areas will likely see rain.  The snow will be limited to locations above 7,500 feet.  I like what I see from the models as far as the moisture of this system goes.  It looks to be a very wet and warm storm.  This could be a huge help in reducing our fire danger.  The heaviest rains will fall in central and western sections.  Significant snow will fall in the Sangre de Cristos.  My bust potential on this storm is 4 5% right now.  If we continue to see huge amounts of moisture continue to show up on the model forecasts this storm could be a huge help in reaching our November precip averages.

Mark Ronchetti

A few weak weather disturbances will pass to our north.  This will bring an occasional flurries to the northern mountains over the next few days.  Temps will remain in the 50's for highs in most Valley sections of the state. 

We are watching another storm for the weekend.  I have significant doubts about this one though.  A couple things are very clear already.  This storm will not be as cold as the Thanksgiving storm.  So all valley areas will likely see rain.  The snow will be limited to locations above 7,500 feet.  I also don't like what I see from the models as far as the strength of the system goes.  A couple days ago it showed this storm being very strong.  Lately however, its weakened the system a bit.  This tends to lead to a further weakening as the week goes on.  My bust potential on this storm is 60% right now.  If we can get some consistency in the models and keep it relatively strong then we can bring the bust potential down.

Mark Ronchetti

Our winter storm finally exited the state Sunday.  There were a few flurries in Lea county into the afternoon.  Now the storm is in West Texas and New Mexico is left with clearing skies and warming temps.  There is another upper level trough that will bring clouds to the state Monday afternoon.  Expect little precipitation with this system as it passes through.  However, the clouds will help overnight temperatures from getting too chilly. 

Our sites are set now on the next storm that could bring good moisture to the state as we head towards Friday and Saturday.  The storm will set up over the Baja and hang out until the end of the week when it will get kicked east and pump moisture our way.  As far as widespread winter weather is concerned, it won't be as significant due to the storms warmer origins.  Mount ain areas will see the best chance for snow while lower areas will mainly see rain.  We will keep you updated as this storm approaches.

Travis Christy

As the great Michael Buffer likes to say...let's get ready to rumble!!!  We have a storm to contend with over the Thanksgiving weekend.  Last week we told you about a promising storm that will turn north of New Mexico over the next few days.  This will still happen.  This system will help to usher in some cooler air across the state on Wednesday.  But here is where things get more interesting.  The models now show another stronger storm diving in over the state Thursday through at least Saturday.  This system has the potential to dump a lot of snow over the mountains and a winter mix over the valley.

There are some reasons for concern so we are not totally jumping on board quite yet.  The track of this system is still up in the air.  If it sets up over Arizona and draws copious moisture in New Mexico we will have a major storm and travel mess on our hands.  However, if this thing dives too far south or west it could be just a scattered shower maker and not a major storm.  Much of my doubt has nothing to so with science but rather the fact that our luck has been so bad with storms over the past few months.  But never the less there is real cause for optimism in our states mountain communities who desperately need snow.  Tomorrow should bring much more clarity on the track and precip potential of this developing storm.

Mark Ronchetti

What a warm weekend! Highs have continued well above average with some areas coming close to breaking record highs. In Albuquerque, the daytime high on Saturday came within four degrees of tying the record of 70. It's looking like the warm weather will spill over into the first part of the week with highs continuing in the 60's and 70's in the north and central and 80's in the south part of the state. Expect this trend through Tuesday before our next big storm system swings through.

     Wednesday winds will begin to crank up and temperatures will drop out. This storm system could bring snow to the north central and north eastern parts of New Mexico. As for the rest of the state only cold air will be felt. Highs will drop into the 40's with overni ght lows in the teens and 20's. Wind chill factors will be in the single digits and teens overnight Wednesday into Thanksgiving.

     Following the mid-week storm, another one behind it will drop into Baja and pump gulf moisture our way. This could help in producing localized significant snows in the southern mountains of New Mexico with other areas seeing a winter mix. We will keep on top of this and see how it plays out.

Travis Christy

Ok we won't waste time worrying about the weather for the next three days.  It will be sunny and mild with highs about 10 degrees above average. 

  Let's look at the coming storm for the Thanksgiving holiday. 

I have to tell you right off the bat I have very little confidence that we will see a major snow storm.  Our LA Nina year (with its northerly storm track) combined with how far out we are leads me to believe we may see some snow in the northern mountains and the northeast but statewide the only real effect will be the coldest conditions of the fall so far.  However, if this storm digs down and sets up over Arizona we could be in for a very messy Tuesday-Thursday. 

If you remember back to last year we had three or four of these systems that came plowing out of Pacific northwest and spun over Arizona.  The overall effect was to draw huge amounts of moisture into the state and produce major snow storms.  The problem is so far this year storms have not been digging as far south.  They've tended to turn north and pass to our north.  This will most likely happen again.  But there is still reason to pay very close attention to this system. 

A strong cold front will push into northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.  This will cool temps down by 20 degrees in the northeast.  Meanwhile here in the Albuquerque area winds will crank up this afternoon (E 20-30). 

Temps will drop on Thursday behind the front by about 10 degrees in central sections of the state.  We've been tracking a low pressure system over Mexico in hopes it would pass through the state on Thursday.  However, the track of the low looks too far south to have a big precip impact on New Mexico. 

We could see a few scattered showers in southwestern parts of the state on Thursday.  But any hope of significant rain or snow is gone.  Our dry fall continues. 

Friday through the weekend looks dry with temps above average.

Mark Ronchetti

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