Meterorolgist Mike Hernandez's Blog

Ok we won't waste time worrying about the weather for the next three days.  It will be sunny and mild with highs about 10 degrees above average. 

  Let's look at the coming storm for the Thanksgiving holiday. 

I have to tell you right off the bat I have very little confidence that we will see a major snow storm.  Our LA Nina year (with its northerly storm track) combined with how far out we are leads me to believe we may see some snow in the northern mountains and the northeast but statewide the only real effect will be the coldest conditions of the fall so far.  However, if this storm digs down and sets up over Arizona we could be in for a very messy Tuesday-Thursday. 

If you remember back to last year we had three or four of these systems that came plowing out of Pacific northwest and spun over Arizona.  The overall effect was to draw huge amounts of moisture into the state and produce major snow storms.  The problem is so far this year storms have not been digging as far south.  They've tended to turn north and pass to our north.  This will most likely happen again.  But there is still reason to pay very close attention to this system.