Meterorolgist Mike Hernandez's Blog

Good morning! I'm Meteorologist Mike Hernandez and I'm hoping by starting this blog we will have an opportunity to get to know each other better. My thinking is that if I know what's important to you all  weatherwise I can do a better job giving you the weather information you really need.  Plus I want to be able to talk about weather issues that we're all interested in or topics that affect our lives. So if you have a question about the forecast for the next few days or you want to talk about , for example El Nino, Global Warming, or the big snow storm, I'm hoping we can do this on this blog. 

So let's start by talking about Global Warming....What do you think? Is it real or is it part of a bigger pattern?  

Our weekend storm is still on track and this one looks to be very wet.  Clouds will increase today across the area with the slight chance of a shower.  By Friday the low will get picked up by the storm track and pushed toward the southwest.  Rain and high mountain snow will overspread the state Friday night and last through Saturday.  This system has the potential to drop over an inch of rain in some of the western valley sections of the state.  By Sunday afternoon we will clear out.

The big question with this system is at what elevation will the rain/snow line setup.  Right now it looks to me to be between 8,000' and 9,000'.  If this is the case most of our ski areas will pick up a very heavy wet snow that will be very good for setting a base for the ski season.  A couple factors could help us achieve a major mountain snowfall.  ; The first will be what time the storm heads in.  If it comes in late Friday night when temps are at their coolest this will help with the snow numbers.  In addition if we get a cold front from the northeast this will help the snow to pile up as well. 

There are still some details we are ironing out with this storm but it looks fairly certain at the very least we are headed for a rainy and cool weekend.  Bust potential is 20%.

Mark Ronchetti

A few weak weather disturbances will pass to our north.  This will bring an occasional flurries to the northern mountains over the next few days.  Temps will remain in the 50's for highs in most Valley sections of the state. 

We are watching another storm for Friday night into the weekend.  A couple things are very clear already.  This storm will not be as cold as the Thanksgiving storm.  So all valley areas will likely see rain.  The snow will be limited to locations above 7,500 feet.  I like what I see from the models as far as the moisture of this system goes.  It looks to be a very wet and warm storm.  This could be a huge help in reducing our fire danger.  The heaviest rains will fall in central and western sections.  Significant snow will fall in the Sangre de Cristos.  My bust potential on this storm is 4 5% right now.  If we continue to see huge amounts of moisture continue to show up on the model forecasts this storm could be a huge help in reaching our November precip averages.

Mark Ronchetti

A few weak weather disturbances will pass to our north.  This will bring an occasional flurries to the northern mountains over the next few days.  Temps will remain in the 50's for highs in most Valley sections of the state. 

We are watching another storm for the weekend.  I have significant doubts about this one though.  A couple things are very clear already.  This storm will not be as cold as the Thanksgiving storm.  So all valley areas will likely see rain.  The snow will be limited to locations above 7,500 feet.  I also don't like what I see from the models as far as the strength of the system goes.  A couple days ago it showed this storm being very strong.  Lately however, its weakened the system a bit.  This tends to lead to a further weakening as the week goes on.  My bust potential on this storm is 60% right now.  If we can get some consistency in the models and keep it relatively strong then we can bring the bust potential down.

Mark Ronchetti